🇪🇪🇱🇻🇱🇹 Baltic GDP Pulse — Q3 2025
Baltic Focus tracks macroeconomic shifts across the region.
🇪🇪 ESTONIA
GDP: +0.9% y/y (unchanged from Q2), €10.5bn in current prices.
Quarterly growth: +0.4% (seasonally adjusted).
Drivers:
Manufacturing +7.9% (best since 2021), energy +21.5%, real estate +4.4%.
– Wholesale & retail −6.9%, transport & storage −6.9%.
Household consumption fell 0.6%, investment slightly down (−0.7%).
Exports grew 5.7%, imports 5.6%, keeping net export positive.
🇱🇹 LITHUANIA
GDP: +2.0% y/y (seasonally adjusted).
Quarterly growth: −0.02% vs Q2 — essentially flat.
Current-price GDP: €22.2bn.
Production-side:
– Negative impact: manufacturing, transportation & storage.
Positive: wholesale & retail, professional & technical services, administrative services.
Expenditure-side vs Q2:
• Household consumption −0.7%
• Government consumption −0.2%
• Investment +1.2%
• Exports −1.2%, imports +0.1%
YTD: GDP Jan–Sep 2025: €61.7bn, growth +2.8% y/y.
🇱🇻 LATVIA
GDP: +2.5% y/y, €11.2bn in Q3 (current prices).
Quarterly growth: +0.6%.
Production-side highlights:
Manufacturing +7.3%, with strong gains in food production +10.7% and wood products +9.2%.
Construction +9.0%, driven by infrastructure (+21.9%).
Retail +1.3%, hospitality +4.9%, ICT +2.6%.
– Deep declines: mining −24.2%, forestry −6.4%, information services −8.9%.
Demand-side:
• Household consumption +1.8%
• Government consumption +5.8%
• Investment +10.8% (notably machinery & equipment +15.2%)
• Exports +3.0%, imports +5.8%
Wages rose +6.5% overall.
🧭 Baltic Context — Why This Matters
The Baltic economies finally show synchronized stabilization:
Manufacturing rebounds across all three states — a first since 2022.
Household consumption remains weak in Estonia and Lithuania, but improves in Latvia.
Construction and infrastructure are now a region-wide growth engine.
Trade flows remain positive in Estonia and Latvia; Lithuania experiences a temporary dip.
Across the region, growth is positive y/y, but quarterly dynamics suggest a fragile recovery.
This is the clearest sign yet that Baltic economies have bottomed out and are entering a slow but broad recovery phase heading into 2026.
BSM@Baltic Focus