All three Baltic states started 2026 with smaller populations than a year earlier. Latvia saw the steepest drop, Lithuania the mildest, while Estonia stood in between but with a sharper structural shift: after more than a decade, net migration turned negative again.
Data card: Baltic states
Latvia: 1.823 million on 1 January 2026, down by about 14.0 thousand in 2025.
Estonia: 1,360,745 on 1 January 2026, down by 9,250 year on year.
Lithuania: 2.8869 million on 1 January 2026, down by 3.8 thousand year on year.
Estonia
Estonia’s population stood at 1,360,745 on 1 January 2026, which was 9,250 fewer than a year earlier. The country recorded 9,240 births and 15,688 deaths in 2025. Migration also turned against population growth: 15,212 people immigrated and 18,014 emigrated, leaving net migration at minus 2,802. Roughly two thirds of the overall decline came from negative natural increase and one third from migration turning negative again.
Data card: Estonia
Population: 1,360,745
Annual change: -9,250
Births: 9,240
Deaths: 15,688
Net migration: -2,802
Latvia
Latvia’s provisional population on 1 January 2026 was 1.823 million. The country lost about 14.0 thousand people over the year because deaths continued to far exceed births. In 2025, Latvia recorded 11,637 births and 25,677 deaths, leaving a natural decrease of 14,040. That made Latvia the weakest performer in the Baltic comparison at the start of 2026.
Data card: Latvia
Population: 1.823 million
Annual change: -14.0 thousand
Births: 11,637
Deaths: 25,677
Natural increase: -14,040
Lithuania
Lithuania’s resident population totalled 2.8869 million on 1 January 2026, down by just 3.8 thousand from a year earlier. That was the mildest decline in the Baltics. The key buffer was migration: in 2025, Lithuania still posted positive net international migration, with 44.7 thousand immigrants and 28.5 thousand emigrants, a difference of 16.2 thousand.
Data card: Lithuania
Population: 2.8869 million
Annual change: -3.8 thousand
Immigration: 44.7 thousand
Emigration: 28.5 thousand
Net international migration: +16.2 thousand
The Baltic demographic ranking at the start of 2026 was clear: Latvia lost the most, Lithuania the least, and Estonia sat in the middle. But the structure matters too. Latvia remained under the heaviest pressure from natural decrease, Lithuania was still cushioned by positive migration, and Estonia’s result stood out because migration, which had supported population growth in recent years, turned negative again.