Retail turnover increased across the Baltics in March 2026, but the recovery is not moving at the same speed. The regional picture shows three different consumption stories: Lithuania combined the highest inflation with solid real retail growth, Estonia’s headline growth was strongly supported by fuel sales, while Latvia remained the weakest in real retail expansion despite the lowest inflation in the region.
Regional data card
Real retail growth, March 2026, y/y
- Estonia: +7.0%
- Lithuania: +5.7%
- Latvia: +3.9%
Inflation, March 2026, y/y
- Lithuania: 4.8%
- Estonia: 3.6%
- Latvia: 3.4%
Latvia: lower inflation, weaker demand
Latvia’s retail turnover grew by 3.9% in real terms in March, while nominal turnover increased by 7.9%. The gap between nominal and real retail growth points to a retail-specific price deflator of roughly 4 percentage points, slightly above Latvia’s March CPI of 3.4%.
Food retail rose by only 1.1%, while non-food retail, excluding fuel, increased by 5.4%. Fuel sales grew by 4.8%.
Data card: Latvia
- Real retail growth: +3.9%
- Nominal retail growth: +7.9%
- Inflation: 3.4%
- Food: +1.1%
- Non-food, excluding fuel: +5.4%
- Fuel: +4.8%
Latvia’s figures suggest that the issue is not inflation alone. Even with the lowest inflation rate in the region, real retail growth remains the weakest. The data point to cautious household behaviour and limited demand resilience.
Lithuania: higher inflation, stronger spending
Lithuania recorded 5.7% real retail growth in March, despite inflation reaching 4.8%, the highest level in the Baltics at the end of Q1.
Food retail increased by 1.9%, non-food retail by 8.1%, and fuel sales by 6.5%. The structure suggests that Lithuanian demand was able to absorb stronger price pressure better than in Latvia.
Data card: Lithuania
- Real retail growth: +5.7%
- Inflation: 4.8%
- Food: +1.9%
- Non-food: +8.1%
- Fuel: +6.5%
Estonia: strong headline growth, fuel distortion
Estonia posted the fastest retail growth in the region, with real retail turnover up 7.0% year on year. However, the structure of that growth is important.
Fuel retail sales increased by 15%, while non-food sales rose by 10%. At the same time, food retail continued to decline, falling by 2% year on year.
Estonia’s fuel surge was not only a signal of domestic demand. It also reflected behavioural and cross-border factors, including fuel purchases linked to Latvia’s higher fuel excise burden from early 2026.
Data card: Estonia
- Real retail growth: +7.0%
- Inflation: 3.6%
- Food: –2.0%
- Non-food: +10.0%
- Fuel: +15.0%
What the numbers show
The Baltic retail recovery is real, but uneven. Inflation still matters, yet it no longer explains the whole picture.
Lithuania shows stronger demand despite the highest inflation in the region. Estonia’s headline growth is partly fuel-driven and therefore should be read with caution. Latvia, meanwhile, appears not simply inflation-constrained, but demand-constrained.
The common pattern is also clear: food retail remains weak or subdued across the region, while headline growth is being supported mainly by non-food categories and fuel.
Structural takeaway
The Baltics are entering a selective retail recovery phase. Households are spending again, but not evenly, and not with the same confidence across countries.
Latvia shows the weakest consumer recovery. Lithuania shows the strongest demand resilience. Estonia shows the strongest headline growth, but with a visible fuel-related distortion.
Data basis
Data basis: National statistical releases covering March 2026 (published in April 2026).
Comparison method
Retail: turnover volume indices in constant prices, year on year.
Inflation: national CPI, March 2026, year on year.
Interpretation
The comparison shows that regional retail differences are driven not only by inflation, but also by household demand resilience, spending structure and fuel-related behavioural effects.