Comparison vs April 2026.
Method: non-promotional prices only.
Sources: Rimi + Barbora online retail checks.
Focus: lowest visible baseline price, not average basket price.
By 30 June, the cheapest visible Baltic food basket was still available, but the picture became less even than in April. The stable core remains milk, eggs, bread, potatoes, sugar and sunflower oil. The pressure is more selective: carrots moved up in all three markets, Lithuania’s chicken fillet no longer shows the April low, Estonia’s rice baseline rose sharply, and pork remains difficult to compare because clean non-promotional baseline products are often missing or replaced by promotional or different-cut offers.
Lithuania
| Category | Rimi | Barbora | June lowest visible baseline | Compared with April |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Milk, 1 l | €0.58 Rimi Smart 2.5% | €0.90 FARM MILK 2% | €0.58/l | Stable / slightly lower vs €0.59 |
| Eggs, 10 pcs | €2.25 Rimi Smart barn eggs | €2.59 WELL DONE barn eggs | €2.25 | Lowest baseline stable |
| Bread / baton, 300 g | €0.32 Rimi Smart | €0.32 MALŪNO | €0.32 | Stable |
| Potatoes, kg | €0.39 Gala | €0.39 MARABEL | €0.39/kg | Stable |
| Carrots, kg | €0.89 | €0.99 | €0.89/kg | Higher vs April €0.55–0.75 |
| Chicken fillet, kg | €8.79 | €7.49 | €7.49/kg | Higher vs April €6.98–6.99 |
| Pork shoulder, kg | €5.49 | €4.99 | €4.99/kg | Stable vs April, still above March reference |
| Rice, 800 g | €0.93 Rimi Smart | €0.93 EXTRA LINE | €0.93 | Stable |
| Sugar, 1 kg | €0.67 Rimi Smart | €0.59 EXTRA LINE | €0.59/kg | Lower than April €0.64–0.67 |
| Sunflower oil, 1 l | €1.53 Rimi Smart | €2.29 WELL DONE | €1.53/l | Stable; low baseline remains in Rimi |
Result: Lithuania
Lithuania’s low-cost staple baseline remains strong, especially in Rimi. Milk, bread, potatoes, rice and sunflower oil are stable, and the lowest sugar baseline is lower than in April.
The pressure is concentrated in carrots and chicken fillet. Lithuania no longer shows the same April low in chicken fillet, and pork remains above the earlier March reference level. Barbora is stronger for meat and sugar, while Rimi remains the clearer anchor for milk, eggs, carrots and sunflower oil.
Estonia
| Category | Rimi | Barbora | June lowest visible baseline | Compared with April |
| Milk, 1 l | €0.55 Rimi Smart 2.5% | €0.55 FARM MILK 2.5% | €0.55/l | Stable |
| Eggs, 10 pcs | €1.79 Rimi Smart cage eggs | €2.75 WELL DONE barn eggs | €1.79 | Low baseline stable |
| Bread / sai, 300 g | €0.48 Hea Sai | €0.45 Parim Päts | €0.45 | Stable / slightly lower |
| Potatoes, kg | €0.33 loose, Estonia | €0.34 loose | €0.33/kg | Lower vs April €0.38–0.39 |
| Carrots, kg | €0.69 | €0.59 | €0.59/kg | Higher vs April €0.45 |
| Chicken fillet, kg | €11.72 Tallegg inner fillet, 400 g | €9.98 WELL DONE, 500 g | €9.98/kg | High; worse than April €9.35 |
| Pork | €8.49 Rakvere pork neck | €2.99 promo / regular €5.99 | No clean comparable baseline | Still unclear / non-comparable |
| Rice, 800 g | €1.55 Rimi Smart | €1.59 EXTRA LINE | €1.55 | Much higher vs April €0.49 |
| Sugar, 1 kg | €0.67 Rimi Smart; €0.55 only bulk/offer | €0.67 EXTRA LINE | €0.67/kg | Stable within April range |
| Sunflower oil, 1 l | €1.55 Rimi Smart | €2.99 WELL DONE | €1.55/l | Stable within April range |
Result: Estonia
Estonia still has a visible low-cost baseline in milk, eggs, bread, potatoes, sugar and sunflower oil. Potatoes are even cheaper than in April.
The negative changes are clearer than in April. Carrots moved up, chicken fillet remains expensive, and the very low April rice baseline has disappeared. Pork remains non-clean for comparison: Barbora’s €2.99/kg pork is promotional, while Rimi shows a different and much more expensive cut.
Latvia
| Category | Rimi | Barbora | June lowest visible baseline | Compared with April |
| Milk, 1 l | €0.95 Rimi 2% | €0.59 FARM MILK 2% | €0.59/l | Lower vs April €0.65; Rimi also below earlier €1+ threshold |
| Eggs, 10 pcs | €1.99 Rimi Smart cage eggs | €1.99 barn eggs | €1.99 | Stable |
| Bread, 300 g | €0.35 Rimi Beķera | €0.35 MANA MAIZE | €0.35 | Confirmed baseline; April needed manual check |
| Potatoes, kg | €0.45 loose | €0.59 packed | €0.45/kg | Stable |
| Carrots, kg | €0.99 | €0.99 | €0.99/kg | Higher vs April €0.89 |
| Chicken fillet, kg | €7.99 | €7.99 Ķekava | €7.99/kg | Stable |
| Pork | Rimi shoulder unavailable; promo ham €2.99 excluded | promo ham €2.79 German/variable origin; Latvian RGK promo €4.89, regular €5.99 | No clean non-promo shoulder baseline | Weaker visibility than April |
| Rice, 800 g | €1.19 Rimi Smart | €1.29 EXTRA LINE | €1.19 | Stable |
| Sugar, 1 kg | €0.69 Rimi Smart | €0.69 | €0.69/kg | Stable |
| Sunflower oil, 1 l | €1.69 Rimi Smart | €1.69 EXTRA LINE | €1.69/l | Stable |
Result: Latvia
Latvia remains broadly stable at the low-cost baseline level. The main positive movement is milk: Barbora’s cheapest visible baseline moved from €0.65/l in April to €0.59/l in June, while Rimi’s own milk is now below the earlier €1+ visible threshold.
Eggs, chicken fillet, potatoes, rice, sugar and sunflower oil remain stable. The main negative movement is carrots, now €0.99/kg. Pork is less clean than in April because the comparable Rimi pork shoulder baseline was unavailable and Barbora’s visible pork offers were promotional, imported/variable-origin, or different-cut references.
Regional picture — June vs April
| Signal | June assessment |
| Broad inflation shock in the cheapest basket | No |
| Milk | Still cheap across all three markets: €0.55–0.59/l |
| Eggs | Stable at the lowest baseline; Lithuania structurally higher because the visible baseline is barn eggs |
| Bread | Stable in all three markets |
| Potatoes | Stable or cheaper; Estonia lowest |
| Carrots | Higher in Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia |
| Chicken fillet | Lithuania higher than April; Estonia still high; Latvia stable |
| Pork | Weakest comparison category because clean non-promo baselines are often missing |
| Rice | Lithuania and Latvia stable; Estonia sharply higher vs April |
| Sunflower oil | Stable where Rimi Smart anchors the baseline |
| Sugar | Stable; Lithuania’s Barbora baseline lower than April range |
Conclusion
June does not show a broad inflation shock in the cheapest Baltic retail basket. The lowest visible baseline products remain available across the region, especially in milk, eggs, bread, potatoes, sugar and sunflower oil.
Compared with April, however, the basket is less clean. Carrots moved up across all three countries. Lithuania lost the very low April chicken fillet baseline. Estonia lost the very low April rice baseline. Latvia remains the most stable before the July VAT test, but pork visibility is weaker because clean non-promotional shoulder pricing was not visible.
For consumers, the cheapest basket still exists at the end of June. But compared with April, finding it depends even more on retailer, product format and whether the low-cost line remains visible online.