Baltic Focus Brief 28/09 – 04/10

The Baltics entered October with two economic stories running in parallel. Private and EU-backed investment continues to add industrial and energy capacity, while governments face a structurally heavier bill for defence and infrastructure.

Debt is not yet a crisis; the concern is trajectory. Estonia entered this cycle with public debt of only about 24% of GDP, but its draft 2027 budget now carries a 4% deficit. Latvia’s debt had already reached 46.9% of GDP in 2025, while Lithuania’s is projected at about 45.4% by the end of 2026.

The political question is now particularly immediate in Latvia. United List won 35.3% of the vote and a provisional 41 seats on 3 October, putting it at the centre of coalition talks — and of the choices that will shape the 2027 budget.

This week’s Baltic Briefing looks at Lithuania’s 1,195 MW battery-storage build-out, Estonia’s tightening fiscal position, Latvia’s post-election choices, and the increasingly different inflation and industrial signals emerging across the region.