🇱🇹🇱🇻🇪🇪Baltic Inflation — January 2026
Stabilisation, but structural divergence remains
Inflation in the Baltics is now clustered around the 3% level, though internal drivers differ.
DATA CARD — HICP (January 2026)
🇱🇻Latvia
• Annual inflation: 2.8%
• Monthly: +1.2%
• Average annual: 3.4%
🇱🇹Lithuania
• Annual inflation: 2.8%
• Monthly: +1.2%
• Average annual: 3.4%
🇪🇪Estonia*
• Annual inflation (CPI): 3.7%
• Monthly: +1.0%
• Food (y/y): +6%
• Electricity (m/m): +22.2%
*HICP for Estonia to be aligned upon full harmonised release.
What drives January inflation?
Latvia
• Utilities and electricity
• Food
• Fuel acting as a stabiliser
Lithuania
• Heat energy
• Restaurants and services
• Alcohol and tobacco
Estonia
• Electricity exchange surge
• Food
• Excise-related items
Structural reading
Energy shock phase has ended — fuel no longer dominates.
Utilities and services are now the core inflation drivers.
Estonia remains more exposed to electricity volatility.
Latvia and Lithuania are synchronised under HICP methodology.
The Baltics appear to be settling into a 3–4% structural inflation corridor rather than returning to a strict 2% zone.
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