11. Debt outlook tightens with higher defense spending

The National Audit Office projects public debt rising from 42.6% of GDP in 2025 toward 53.8% by 2028, as Vilnius boosts defense towards 5% of GDP and broadens the tax base.

Context: Lithuania keeps under Maastricht limits but has less fiscal slack; its path contrasts with Latvia’s historically lower debt and Estonia’s ultra-cautious stance.

12. Belarus border tensions strand hundreds of trucks

Following Minsk’s transit restrictions, around 500 Lithuanian trucks are stuck near Šalčininkai; Vilnius proposes controlled re-entry via the same checkpoint.

Context: Another reminder that political friction on the Belarus border can instantly disrupt Baltic logistics chains and divert flows via Latvia and Poland.

13. Illegal cigarette market hits 26.7%

Contraband and counterfeit cigarettes account for over a quarter of Lithuanian consumption; most originate from Belarus, with drones and balloons used for delivery.

Context: Tobacco smuggling has evolved into a hybrid-security issue, blending fiscal loss, organized crime and airspace violations along NATO’s frontier.

14. Eleven firms pay €100m+ each in taxes

Lithuania reports €13.3bn in business tax payments (+10.1% y/y), with fuel retailers, banks, Thermo Fisher and others leading.

Context: A relatively broad and robust tax base underpins Lithuania’s higher spending capacity versus its Baltic neighbours.

15. airBaltic reshapes Vilnius schedule amid balloon incursions

airBaltic moves key flights to earlier evening slots to reduce exposure to repeated Vilnius airspace closures triggered by Belarus-launched balloons.