Baltic inflation snapshot: February 2026
Intro
On 10 March, statistical offices across the Baltic states released their February inflation data.
Price growth in the region remains moderate overall, but the drivers of inflation are increasingly diverging between Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia.
Data Card
Latvia
Inflation (y/y): 2.3%
Monthly change: +0.2%
Main movements:
- Housing and utilities +5.3%
- Food and non-alcoholic beverages +2.4%
- Transport −1.7%
Food prices actually fell 0.6% month-to-month, largely due to retail promotions.
Lithuania
Inflation (y/y, HICP): 3.3%
Monthly change: +1.0%
Key drivers:
- Heat energy
- Restaurants and catering
- Alcohol and tobacco
- Vehicle maintenance services
Estonia
Inflation (y/y): 3.1%
Monthly change: +0.8%
Key drivers:
- Food prices
- Healthcare services
- Tobacco products
- Holiday travel services
Country Drivers
The Baltic inflation picture currently shows three slightly different dynamics.
Latvia currently records the lowest inflation among the Baltic states. Lower fuel prices and aggressive supermarket promotions in food retail helped contain the headline index.
Lithuania is seeing stronger pressure from utilities and service-sector prices, particularly heating and hospitality.
Estonia remains sensitive to service inflation and food price movements, with healthcare and tourism-related spending contributing to the increase.
Conclusion
The regional inflation picture suggests that Baltic inflation is stabilising but not disappearing.
Energy shocks are no longer the dominant factor. Instead, service inflation and sector-specific price pressures are becoming the main drivers of price growth across the region.
This pattern is typical for the late phase of an inflation cycle.
Background
After the energy shock of 2022–2023, inflation across the Baltic region has gradually slowed. However, the structure of price growth has shifted.
Earlier spikes were driven primarily by energy and fuel prices. Today, inflation is increasingly linked to services and labour-intensive sectors such as healthcare, hospitality and personal services.
Within food categories, volatility remains high. In Latvia, for example, eggs (+18.2%), poultry (+12.2%) and fresh vegetables (+15.6%) recorded strong annual price increases, while butter (−19.9%) and olive oil (−22.5%) became significantly cheaper over the same period.
The next Baltic inflation updates are expected in April.
In short: the Baltic inflation story is no longer about energy shocks — it is now about the slow, persistent rise of service prices.