🧺 Baltic Grocery Index — baseline price check (vs 9 January)
Reference: week ending 26 December 2025
Baseline snapshot: 9 January 2026
Follow-up check: mid-January
Method: non-promotional prices only
Sources: Rimi and Barbora online listings
⚠️ Promotional prices excluded
🇱🇻 Latvia — baseline prices
Change vs 9 Jan: NO
Milk (fresh 2–2.5%): €0.75/L — unchanged
Bread 300 g: €0.39 — unchanged
Eggs (10): €1.99 — unchanged
Chicken fillet (baseline): €7.99/kg — unchanged
Potatoes: €0.59/kg — unchanged
Carrots: €0.65/kg — unchanged
Sunflower oil 1 L: €1.99 — unchanged
Rice 800 g: €1.19 (Rimi = Barbora) — unchanged
Sugar 1 kg: €0.75 — unchanged
Pork shoulder (baseline): €5.29–5.99/kg — unchanged
Pork promo floor: €2.99/kg — promo, excluded
Result (LV): baseline prices did not move.
🇱🇹 Lithuania — baseline prices
Change vs 9 Jan: NO
Milk 1 L: €0.62–0.65 — unchanged
Bread 300 g: €0.34 — unchanged
Eggs (10): €2.15 — unchanged
Chicken fillet: €7.29–8.79/kg — unchanged
Potatoes: €0.49–0.50/kg — unchanged
Carrots (baseline): €0.58–0.65/kg — unchanged
Sunflower oil 1 L: €1.54 — unchanged
Rice 800 g: €0.93–0.95 — unchanged
Sugar 1 kg: €0.68–0.89 — unchanged
Pork shoulder: €5.49–5.59/kg — unchanged
Pork promo floor: €2.99/kg — promo, excluded
Result (LT): baseline prices did not move.
🇪🇪 Estonia — baseline prices
Change vs 9 Jan: NO
Milk 1 L: €0.59 — unchanged
Bread 300 g: €0.43–0.50 — within range
Eggs (10): €1.69–2.39 — within range
Potatoes: €0.39/kg — unchanged
Carrots: €0.42–0.45/kg — within range
Sunflower oil 1 L: €1.59–1.79 — unchanged
Rice 800 g: €0.39–0.49 — unchanged
Sugar 1 kg: €0.59–0.73 — unchanged
Chicken (functional equivalent, packed): ~€14.97/kg — unchanged
Pork promo floor: €2.99/kg — promo, excluded
Result (EE): EDLP baseline unchanged.
Milk — category note
UHT milk (all fat levels): prices moved down
Fresh milk (core basket anchor): no change
Bottom line
No baseline price decline after 9 January in any Baltic market.
No delayed post-holiday adjustment.
Market differences remain structural, not temporary.Structural comparison — market models
🇱🇻 Latvia
High, flat baselines across chains (Rimi = Barbora)
Weak intra-market price competition
Price pressure via availability gaps and promotions
Low-price anchors often missing or temporarily hidden
🇱🇹Lithuania
Visible baseline competition between chains
Aggressive post-holiday promotions
Baseline prices remain observable under promo layers
🇪🇪Estonia
Lowest baseline levels across staples
EDLP model, limited promo dependence
Full availability, no post-holiday assortment gaps
Takeaway
Market differences are structural, not seasonal
Latvia remains expensive because baselines do not move down
Lithuania competes on price pressure
Estonia competes on everyday low pricing. Baltic Focus © 2026
Image: photos/photo_184@31-01-2026_14-35-18.jpg