Lithuania currently has the strongest published GDP growth forecast in the Baltics for 2026, while Estonia expects a slower recovery under tighter fiscal pressure. In Latvia, the central bank’s latest Saeima material focuses less on headline growth and more on the inflation risks from a renewed oil and gas price shock.
Lithuania enters 2026 with the strongest official growth outlook in the Baltic states, at 3.1%, while Estonia’s Finance Ministry expects GDP growth of 2.3%. Latvia is harder to compare on the same basis: in the latest material submitted to the Saeima, Latvijas Banka places the main emphasis not on a directly comparable spring GDP figure, but on the risk that higher energy prices could add fresh inflation pressure to the economy.
Inflation, however, remains the main regional constraint. In Lithuania, the 2026 inflation outlook now ranges from 3.7% in the Finance Ministry scenario to 5.1% in the central bank’s forecast, indicating uncertainty over how long the fuel shock linked to the Middle East crisis may last. Estonia’s Finance Ministry expects consumer prices to rise by 4.0% this year, while average gross wages are projected to increase by about 5%.
Latvia is harder to compare on a straight GDP basis in the latest central bank material sent to the Saeima, because the emphasis is placed not on a standard spring macro forecast, but on the transmission of higher oil and gas prices into inflation and growth. Under market prices observed on 23 March, Latvijas Banka estimates that higher energy prices could add 1.7 percentage points to inflation in 2026 and 0.9 percentage points in 2027. Under the ECB’s severe scenario, the inflation impact would rise to 3.1 percentage points in 2026 and 2.4 percentage points in 2027. Oil was assumed at 106 dollars per barrel and gas at 58 euros per MWh on 23 March, up 50% and 78% respectively from mid-February.
The regional picture is clear enough: Lithuania still has the strongest published growth rate, Estonia is recovering more slowly and under tighter fiscal constraints, while Latvia is highlighting how vulnerable the region remains to another imported energy-price shock. The key Baltic macro story for 2026 is not only growth, but how much of that growth can survive another inflation wave.
Short data card version
Baltic 2026 macro snapshot
- Lithuania: GDP growth 3.1%; inflation 3.7%-5.1%
- Estonia: GDP growth 2.3%; inflation 4.0%
- Latvia: no directly comparable spring GDP figure in the cited central bank Saeima material; energy shock could add 1.7-3.1 pp to inflation in 2026.