Baltic Demography Continues to Shrink in 2025

📉 Baltic Demography Continues to Shrink in 2025

Population decline across the Baltic states remained structurally negative in 2025, with falling birth rates and persistent natural decrease.

Latvia and Estonia both recorded significant gaps between births and deaths, while Lithuania’s long-term projections confirm similar demographic pressure ahead. Seasonal birth patterns remained visible in Latvia, where the highest monthly birth numbers were recorded during summer and early autumn.

📊 DATA CARD — Baltic Demography 2025

🌍 Latvia and Estonia combined

• Live births: 20,729

• Deaths: 41,104

• Natural population change: –20,375

🇱🇻 Latvia

• Population (Jan 1, 2026): 1.823 million

• Live births: 11,637 (▼ 9.7% YoY)

• Deaths: 25,677 (▼ 3.7% YoY)

• Natural change: –14,040

• Marriages: 10,683 (▲ 4.7%)

🇪🇪 Estonia

• Population (Jan 1, 2026): 1,362,954

• Live births: 9,092 (▼ 6% YoY)

• Deaths: 15,427

• Natural change: approx. –6,300

• Net migration: –706 (first negative balance since 2014, reflecting lower inflows and shifting migration dynamics)

🇱🇹 Lithuania

• Population (2025): 2.89 million

• Live births (2025): 19,381

Long-term projections indicate population decline to 2.15 million by 2100, driven by ageing population, declining working-age groups and a shrinking number of women of reproductive age.

📍 Context

Across the Baltic region, demographic decline is increasingly driven by structural factors:

• Falling fertility rates

• Shrinking number of women of reproductive age

• Ageing population

• Migration becoming a key stabilising variable

The demographic shift is expected to influence labour markets, social security systems, education planning and long-term economic growth across the region.

Image: photos/photo_199@13-02-2026_21-40-56.jpg