Baltic Digest Weekly | 11–16 November 2025
🇪🇪🇱🇻🇱🇹 Baltic inflation stabilises around 4–5%
Consumer prices in October grew by 4.1–4.6% year-on-year across Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, with monthly changes close to zero. Food prices eased in Estonia and Lithuania, while Latvia still saw increases in fresh vegetables and fish. Housing and services remained the main inflation drivers, especially energy and rents. Overall, the region appears to have exited the post-shock volatility phase but will continue to face wage- and tariff-driven pressures over winter.
🇪🇪🇱🇻🇱🇹 Labour markets remain tight, youth joblessness falls
Lithuania’s unemployment dropped to 6.6% in Q3, with youth unemployment at 12.5% – the lowest since 2018 and a sharp fall from a year earlier. Latvia recorded a 6.9% unemployment rate with rising long-term joblessness but stronger youth employment, while Estonia’s unemployment stood at 7.1% with modest declines in total jobseekers. National central banks and labour agencies report continued labour demand, especially in services, construction and manufacturing. Ageing and skills mismatches mean that even with stable unemployment, many employers still struggle to hire.
🇪🇪🇱🇻🇱🇹 Trade growth returns, but deficits widen and Lithuania lags
September trade data show exports growing in Latvia (+8.8%) and Estonia (+4%), while remaining flat in Lithuania (-0.3%). Imports rose faster everywhere, widening trade deficits – most sharply in Lithuania, where the monthly gap reached almost €570 million. Across the region, mineral fuel trade continues to shrink, while machinery, transport equipment, wood and agri-food dominate new flows. EU partners now account for well over 70% of exports in each country, confirming the Baltic shift away from post-Soviet supply chains.
🇱🇻🇱🇹 Energy and finance: Ignitis earnings normalise, Latvenergo taps green bond market
Lithuanian utility Ignitis group saw Q3 net profit fall by more than half as power prices and exceptional margins from 2022–23 continued to normalise, even though adjusted EBITDA edged up over nine months. In Latvia, state-owned Latvenergo issued its first EU green bond, raising €400 million at a 3.612% coupon with demand more than 5.5 times the offer. The placement was dominated by European asset managers and sustainability-focused investors. Together, the moves underline a shift from crisis-era windfall profits towards more ordinary returns financed via Europe’s growing green capital market.
🇪🇪 Tax revenues and foreign labour reshape Estonia’s economy
Estonia collected €11.3 billion in tax revenues over nine months, €1.1 billion more than a year earlier, with strong growth in personal income tax, social tax and VAT. The increase reflects higher wages and tax changes rather than rapid GDP growth. At the same time, about 6,500 third-country nationals arrived for work in 2025, mostly from Ukraine, Moldova and Uzbekistan, filling roles in construction, agriculture, manufacturing and logistics. Employers warn that without a more flexible migration framework, demographic decline will leave persistent labour gaps in key sectors.
Image: photos/photo_44@17-11-2025_09-14-51.jpg