Baltic Digest Weekly
17–23 November 2025
1️⃣ Lithuania–Belarus Border Standoff Hits Logistics Hard
Lithuania keeps Medininkai heavily restricted and Šalčininkai fully closed at least until 30 November, even as Poland reopens two crossings and processes over 1,300 vehicles in the first hours. Vilnius links the decision to repeated incidents where meteorological balloons carrying contraband cigarettes disrupted traffic near the airport and forced temporary shutdowns. Around 1,500 Lithuanian trucks remain stranded in Belarus, many in paid “special parking lots” costing up to €120/day, with total affected vehicles on Asia–EU routes estimated at 4,000–5,000. Industry groups warn that losses already reach tens of millions of euros and say persistent closure may reroute long-haul transit away from Lithuania toward Poland and Latvia.
2️⃣ EC Autumn Forecast: Uneven but Positive Growth for Baltic Economies
The European Commission’s Autumn 2025 forecast projects modest growth in all three Baltic states, driven by private consumption, investment and export recovery. Latvia is expected to grow by 1.0% in 2025 (1.7% in 2026; 1.9% in 2027), Estonia by 0.6% (then 2.1% and 2.0%), and Lithuania by 2.4% (then 3.0% and 2.2%). Inflation is set to ease, but remain higher in Estonia in 2025, before gradually converging toward 2–3% across the region. Higher defence spending will widen fiscal deficits, while EU funds and defence-linked investment remain key growth drivers.
3️⃣ Latvia’s Trade Data Reveal New Wood, Alcohol and Energy Geography
In January–September 2025 Latvia’s total trade reached €31.86bn (+6.1%), with exports at €14.12bn (+4.4%) and imports at €17.74bn (+7.7%), leaving a €1.22bn deficit. Wood remains the largest export at €2.26bn (15.5%), with the UK taking much of the sawn timber and Sweden importing significant volumes of roundwood – underscoring Latvia’s continued role as a raw-material supplier despite investments in higher-value products. Alcohol exports (KN22) declined by 7.8% as the long-standing “eastern corridor” into Russia and through the Caucasus and Central Asia effectively closed under new restrictions and tighter monitoring. On the import side, fuels and gas flows are reshaping: petrol now comes mostly from Finland, while natural gas is split between regasified LNG via Klaipėda (Lithuania) and Inkoo (Finland), placing Latvia inside a two-node LNG supply system.
4️⃣ Ukrainian LNG Arrives via Klaipėda for the First Time
For the first time, a liquefied natural gas cargo ordered by Ukraine’s D.TRADING (DTEK Group) has been delivered to the Klaipėda LNG terminal. Around 160,000 m³ of US LNG were transferred from the GasLog Houston vessel to the FSRU Independence, with roughly 1 TWh destined for Ukraine via regional interconnectors after regasification. Lithuanian officials frame the shipment as practical support for Ukraine during winter energy disruptions, while KN Energies highlights Klaipėda’s open-access model as key to such cooperation. In 2025 the terminal handled 30 cargoes totalling 23.9 TWh, with about 71% of volumes originating from US plants and the rest from Norway, Mauritania, Senegal and Trinidad and Tobago, serving the Baltics and – when needed – Ukraine.
5️⃣ Fuel Markets: US Sanctions on Russian Companies Tighten Diesel Supply
Image: photos/photo_65@24-11-2025_12-11-02.jpg