Baltic Focus | Electricity Markets
🇱🇹🇱🇻🇪🇪Winter stress test: Baltic power system holds, prices react
Wholesale electricity prices across the Baltic states spiked sharply in early February under severe cold weather and elevated demand. According to Nord Pool day-ahead data, average prices in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania reached around €389/MWh, with intraday peaks exceeding €650/MWh, marking the highest daily averages since January 2024.
Weekly context: why this is a peak, not a “normal cold week”
The contrast with the previous week is significant. For 26 January – 1 February, average wholesale prices stood at €192.83/MWh in Latvia and Lithuania and €203.37/MWh in Estonia, roughly 24–30% higher week-on-week, but still far below the levels seen on 2–3 February. This highlights that the latest jump reflects a short-term extreme peak, rather than a gradual seasonal increase.
Demand, production and balance
Cold weather pushed electricity consumption across the Baltics close to historical highs. Total regional demand reached 748 GWh for the week (+2% week-on-week). Estonia recorded 230 GWh (+4%), Latvia 179 GWh (stable), and Lithuania 339 GWh (+2%).
Regional electricity generation increased by 5% to 557 GWh, but with uneven national balances. Latvia’s production reached 107% of domestic consumption, making it a net exporter during the week. Estonia covered around 55%, and Lithuania about 70% of their respective demand from domestic generation.
Importantly, Latvia’s net-exporter position did not translate into lower prices. In an integrated Nord Pool market, prices are set regionally: high demand and tight supply conditions across neighbouring zones keep prices aligned, even when one country temporarily exports electricity.
Cross-border flows: working infrastructure, tight conditions
Cross-border infrastructure remained operational and actively used. Electricity imports into the Baltics declined slightly to 148 GWh, with 78% flowing via the Sweden–Lithuania cable NordBalt. Lithuanian exports rose by 45% to 39 GWh, largely directed toward Latvia and Poland through LitPol Link.
This export increase should not be read as surplus Lithuanian generation. It largely reflects transit flows of Swedish and Polish electricity through Lithuanian networks toward neighbouring Baltic markets.
Estonia–Finland link and system resilience
Earlier in winter, the Estonia–Finland interconnector EstLink experienced brief technical fluctuations, but these were short-lived and not comparable to the prolonged outage of EstLink 2 in 2024. The Baltic power system continued to operate normally, without supply disruptions.
Cost drivers and outlook
Latvia’s high self-sufficiency implies increased utilisation of gas-fired CHP plants, making prices more sensitive to natural gas costs and CO₂ allowances, even in weeks with strong domestic output.
Looking ahead, markets are closely watching the expected return of Eesti Power Plant unit 8 (around 6 February) and Auvere power plant (around 10 February). Their return is expected to ease price pressure, though it does not eliminate winter volatility.
Bottom line
This winter episode does not point to a system failure or energy deficit. It illustrates a well-integrated Baltic electricity market operating under stress, where prices respond to the temporary absence of cheap megawatts during extreme cold — not to broken connections or structural instability. BSM © 2026
Image: photos/photo_186@02-02-2026_19-57-57.jpg