Baltic fuel prices rise as wholesale market spikes in early March — why Tallinn shows the highest petrol prices

Baltic fuel prices rise as wholesale market spikes in early March — why Tallinn shows the highest petrol prices

Fuel prices increased across all Baltic capitals last week, with the sharpest rise recorded in Riga, particularly for diesel.

Data card (retail)

Riga

95 petrol — €1.714/l (+4.9% week)

Diesel — €1.964/l (+15.9%)

Autogas — €0.995/l

Vilnius

95 petrol — €1.687/l

Diesel — €1.994/l

Tallinn

95 petrol — €1.739/l

Diesel — €1.859/l

👉 Petrol remains most expensive in Tallinn, while diesel prices are highest in Vilnius.

Wholesale signal (Mažeikiai refinery)

Regional wholesale prices from the Mažeikiai refinery operated by

Orlen Lietuva

show a sharp upward move in early March.

A95 petrol

• mid-February: ~€1.29/l

• early March: ~€1.41/l

• peak: €1.483/l on 10 March

➡️ ≈15% increase within three weeks

Diesel

• mid-February: ~€1.44/l

• early March spike: ~€1.84/l (6 March)

• still elevated around €1.76–1.80/l afterwards

➡️ ≈27% increase at the peak

The 10 March petrol level remains the highest wholesale reference so far, and traders across the region are likely to benchmark against it when adjusting retail prices.

Why petrol is most expensive in Tallinn

Estonia typically records the highest petrol prices in the Baltic region partly due to taxation differences. The country applies a 22% VAT rate introduced in 2024, compared with 21% in Latvia and Lithuania, and historically maintains relatively higher fuel excise levels. These tax factors structurally push petrol prices in Tallinn slightly above those in Riga and Vilnius.

At the same time, the current situation — where diesel is significantly more expensive than petrol — reflects broader European fuel market dynamics. Although diesel is often taxed less than petrol in many EU countries, during periods of supply tension diesel prices frequently rise above petrol.

Two additional factors are currently tightening the regional diesel market:

• Seasonal growth in freight transport across the Baltic region as construction activity, logistics flows and agricultural work increase in spring.

• Continued fuel exports towards Ukraine, with Lithuania acting as one of the important supply corridors for diesel shipments.

Together these factors increase demand pressure on diesel in the region and amplify price movements across the Baltic retail fuel market. Small fuel markets tend to mirror wholesale movements faster than large ones. BSM © 2026

Image: photos/photo_220@14-03-2026_12-16-03.jpg