Baltic industry split in April: Latvia and Lithuania grow year-on-year, Estonia loses manufacturing volume
Baltic industrial data for April 2026 point to an uneven regional picture. Latvia and Lithuania still showed year-on-year industrial growth, while Estonia reported a decline in manufacturing output for the third consecutive month.
In Latvia, industrial production rose by 7.0% year-on-year in April 2026, measured in comparable prices and calendar-adjusted data. Manufacturing output increased by 6.8%, while electricity and gas supply rose by 12.1%. The strongest gains in manufacturing came from fabricated metal products, computer, electronic and optical equipment, chemicals, rubber and plastic products, and machinery.
Lithuania also remained ahead of last year. Its total industrial production was 7.4% higher than in April 2025 in comparable prices, adjusted for working days. Manufacturing increased by 8.3%, while manufacturing excluding refined petroleum products rose by 7.6%. At the same time, total industrial output fell by 1.6% month-on-month, after seasonal and working-day adjustment, so the annual growth figure should not be read as uninterrupted monthly momentum.
Estonia moved in the opposite direction. Industrial output fell by 3.8% year-on-year in April, and manufacturing output declined by 3.2%. The main drag in manufacturing came from food production, which fell by 8% and declined for the fourth month in a row.
Outside manufacturing, Estonia’s total industrial figure was also weakened by the energy sector. Energy-sector output fell by 14.9% in constant prices in April, while physical electricity production dropped by 23.9% in megawatt-hours. Statistics Estonia linked the fall in electricity production mainly to higher imports.
Data card — Baltic industry, April 2026
| Country | Total industry, y/y | Manufacturing, y/y | Monthly signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Latvia | +7.0% | +6.8% | Total industry almost flat; manufacturing +2.5% m/m |
| Lithuania | +7.4% | +8.3% | Total industry −1.6% m/m |
| Estonia | −3.8% | −3.2% | Manufacturing flat m/m; third month of decline y/y |
The signal is not a synchronized Baltic industrial cycle. Latvia and Lithuania are still posting annual growth, while Estonia’s manufacturing sector is losing volume. At the same time, Lithuania’s monthly decline and Latvia’s near-flat total monthly result suggest that the positive annual numbers should not be read as a smooth industrial rebound.
For regional observers, the key question is whether Estonia’s weakness remains country-specific, especially in food manufacturing and the energy component of total industry, or whether the Baltic industrial cycle starts to converge again later in the year.
Information sources: Statistics Estonia Central Statistical Bureau of Latvia, Lithuania State Data Agency,