🇱🇻🇱🇹🇪🇪 Baltic job market: vacancies drop across the region, but employment remains stable

Baltic labour markets continued to cool in Q3 2025, with all three states reporting fewer job vacancies year-on-year. Despite this, total employment remains broadly stable, signalling a soft adjustment rather than a downturn.

Lithuanian data are based on the national labour-market monitoring report for October, which provides the most recent comparable indicators for vacancies, sectoral dynamics and unemployment.

🇱🇻 Latvia: sharp vacancy decline, mild employment growth

Latvia recorded 19.2 thousand job vacancies in Q3 (2.1% of all jobs). Vacancies fell 16.1% year-on-year, with the public sector showing the strongest drop (–21.9%).

At the same time, filled jobs increased slightly to 888.5 thousand (+0.3%).

Highest vacancy shares:

public administration – 6.3%,

administrative & support services – 2.9%,

electricity, gas & heating – 2.8%,

transport & storage – 2.5%.

Rīga accounts for the majority of open positions (2.8% of jobs), while Latgale remains structurally weak (1.1%).

🇱🇹 Lithuania: fewer vacancies, demand concentrated in skilled work

Lithuania also shows a double-digit decline in vacancies. At the end of October there were 20.1 thousand open jobs, around 12% less than a year earlier.

Employers registered 14.1 thousand new vacancies during the month – less than in September and below last year’s level.

A key feature of Lithuania’s labour market is the high share of skilled labour demand: about three quarters of newly advertised positions require qualifications.

Sectoral distribution of new vacancies:

manufacturing – ~3.3 thousand,

administrative & support services – ~2.2 thousand,

wholesale & retail – ~1.9 thousand,

construction – ~1.6 thousand,

transport & storage – ~1.5 thousand (highest since last October),

health & social work, education and hospitality – moderate but steady demand.

Vacancies decreased in most sectors except logistics, health & social work, energy and IT – signalling resilience in transport, healthcare and the energy-digital segment.

Regionally, demand remains concentrated in major cities: Vilnius, Kaunas, Šiauliai, Klaipėda.

Registered unemployment in October stood at 8.2%, slightly lower than a year earlier.

🇪🇪 Estonia: modest cooling, steady vacancy rate

Estonia reported 9,375 job vacancies in Q3 2025, down 5.4% year-on-year. The vacancy rate remained at 1.6%, suggesting stability despite reduced hiring appetite.

Sectors with the most open jobs:

education (~2,025 vacancies),

wholesale & retail trade (~1,264).

Manufacturing, trade and education remain the largest employers, matching long-term structural patterns.

Most vacancies are concentrated in Harju County, reflecting Tallinn’s dominant role.

Labour turnover decreased by ~1%, indicating slightly lower hiring and separation rates.

🔎 Regional picture: a synchronised cooling cycle

Across all three countries, the signals are consistent:

📉 Vacancies are falling everywhere

Latvia: –16%

Lithuania: –12%

Estonia: –5%

📊 But employment levels remain stable

Latvia: +0.3%

Lithuania: near-flat employment, with minor year-on-year growth

Estonia: stable total posts, small fluctuations

🏭 Sectoral patterns repeat across the region

Public services are short of people in all three countries (especially Latvia and Estonia).

Manufacturing and logistics show strong demand in Lithuania and stable hiring needs in Estonia.

Transport & storage is a high-demand sector in Latvia and Lithuania.

Education and healthcare appear consistently among vacancy-heavy sectors.

Energy and IT remain pockets of resilience, particularly in Lithuania.

🌍 What it means for 2026

The Baltics are experiencing a soft labour-market correction: employers post fewer vacancies but do not reduce total employment.

Demand is becoming more selective, concentrating in sectors tied to public services, industry, logistics, energy, healthcare and digitalisation.

Image: photos/photo_102@09-12-2025_20-48-42.jpg