BALTIC RETAIL SNAPSHOT — OCTOBER 2025

🇱🇻 LATVIA — strongest and most balanced growth

• Retail sales: +4.8% y/y

• Food: +0.1%

• Non-food: +8.4%

• Fuel: +3.7%

• Biggest gains:

— Non-specialised non-food stores +20.7%

— Household electronics +15%

— ICT equipment +14.7%

• Monthly change: +1.2% m/m (seasonally adjusted)

• Weak spots: online –2.4%, market stalls –5.6%

👉 Profile: broad-based, stable expansion. Latvia leads the region.

🇪🇪 ESTONIA — growth boosted mainly by fuel retail

• Retail sales: +4% y/y

• Food: –3%

• Non-food: +4%

• Fuel: +25% (low base + cheaper fuel)

• Biggest gains:

— Specialised ICT/books/sports/toys stores +21%

— Clothing & footwear +8%

— Used goods +4%

• Monthly change: +2% m/m (seasonally adjusted)

• Weak spots: DIY/building materials –6%, large non-food stores –6%, online –5%

👉 Profile: positive headline growth, but structurally dependent on fuel; food segment remains weak.

🇱🇹 LITHUANIA — non-food and e-commerce drive the trend

• Retail sales: +3.9% y/y

• Food: +1.2%

• Non-food: +10.5%

• Fuel: –4.3%

• Biggest gains:

— Online & mail-order +29.4%

— Pharmacies/medical goods +9.4%

— Non-specialised non-food stores +41.9%

• Monthly change: +0.3% m/m

• Weak spots: textiles –0.4%, selected specialised stores –1%, fuel –4.3%

👉 Profile: strongest non-food performance in the Baltics, with e-commerce as the leading growth engine.

REGIONAL PATTERN — What’s common?

✔️ Non-food retail is the main growth engine across all three markets

✔️ Consumer demand remains resilient despite food inflation

✔️ All Baltic states recorded real expansion in October

✔️ The region enters winter with positive consumption momentum

REGIONAL DIFFERENCES — What stands out?

🇱🇻 Latvia

➡️ Most balanced growth structure

➡️ Strong electronics/ICT performance

➡️ No major weaknesses in food or fuel

🇪🇪 Estonia

➡️ Growth heavily influenced by fuel retail dynamics

➡️ Food retail declining

➡️ Non-food stable but not a strong driver

🇱🇹 Lithuania

➡️ Best-performing non-food sector in the region

➡️ E-commerce is the fastest-growing Baltic retail segment

➡️ Fuel drag, but not large enough to weaken overall growth

BALTIC VIEW — conclusion

Latvia leads on breadth and stability.

Lithuania leads on structural change (non-food and online).

Image: photos/photo_78@28-11-2025_13-58-19.jpg