🇱🇹🇱🇻🇪🇪Baltics Face Winter Power Stress Test in January 2026
Cold weather pushed the Baltic electricity system into one of its most demanding operating periods in recent years. Demand surged across the region while renewable output weakened due to seasonal and weather factors. The gap between consumption and local generation increased reliance on thermal power and imports.
Data Card — January 2026
• Baltic electricity consumption: 3,109 GWh (+22% YoY)
• Lithuania consumption: 1,413 GWh — historic monthly record
• Estonia consumption: ≈942 GWh — historic monthly record
• Latvia consumption: 751.8 GWh — second highest monthly level on record
• Baltic generation: 2,190 GWh (≈70% of demand covered locally)
• Average electricity price Latvia: €153.44/MWh (+83% MoM)
• Gas CHP output Latvia: 523 GWh — highest level in over a decade
Electricity prices surged across all Baltic price zones, driven by prolonged freezing temperatures, reduced wind output, and significantly lower water inflows in the Daugava River system, which constrained hydropower production. At the same time, electricity imports from Finland declined due to rising Nordic market prices, further tightening regional supply.
Gas-fired combined heat and power plants became a key stabilising source of electricity in Latvia, while helping balance the wider Baltic-Nordic market during peak demand periods.
Context
The January stress test illustrates the structural reality of the Baltic energy transition. While wind and solar capacity continues expanding rapidly, seasonal volatility increases the importance of flexible backup generation and storage infrastructure. The region remains in a hybrid transition phase combining renewable growth with gas-based system stability.
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