Fuel became one of the key inflation drivers across the Baltics in March, but it entered the data in different ways. In Latvia, the shock appeared most clearly through a separate jump in retail fuel prices. In Estonia, fuel pushed transport inflation sharply higher, but the overall monthly CPI was neutralised by cheaper electricity. In Lithuania, the picture comes from a preliminary HICP estimate, where diesel and petrol were among the largest contributors to annual inflation.
Latvia
Latvia showed the clearest direct fuel-price shock in the region. In March 2026, average consumer fuel prices rose 21.0% from February. Diesel prices increased 25.4%, petrol rose 11.3%, and autogas was up 7.5%. Compared with March 2025, average fuel prices were 18.5% higher, including a 24.1% rise in diesel. The Central Statistical Bureau said the rapid and unplanned increase in fuel prices was creating challenges for several sectors of the economy.
Data card – Latvia
Fuel +21.0% m/m | Diesel +25.4% | Petrol +11.3% | Autogas +7.5% | Fuel +18.5% y/y
Estonia
Estonia’s March CPI release showed the same fuel shock through a different statistical channel. According to Statistics Estonia, diesel prices rose 26.8% from February and petrol prices increased 14.2%. Transport prices climbed 6.8% month on month and 7.0% year on year. At the same time, electricity prices fell 14.1%, which offset much of the fuel effect and left headline monthly CPI unchanged. Annual inflation in Estonia reached 3.6%.
Data card – Estonia
Diesel +26.8% m/m | Petrol +14.2% | Transport +6.8% m/m | CPI 0.0% m/m | CPI +3.6% y/y
Lithuania
Lithuania should be read separately, because the March figures come from a preliminary HICP estimate rather than the same type of release seen in Latvia or Estonia. Even so, the signal is clear: fuel was one of the main contributors to inflation. Annual HICP inflation in March was preliminarily estimated at 4.5%, while monthly inflation reached 1.6%. In the annual breakdown, diesel prices were up 26.1% year on year and petrol prices were up 13.8%, making both fuels among the largest positive contributors to inflation.
Data card – Lithuania
Preliminary HICP +1.6% m/m | HICP +4.5% y/y | Diesel +26.1% y/y | Petrol +13.8% y/y
Structural explanation
The March data suggest that fuel was a common inflation driver across all three Baltic states, but the statistical effect differed by country. Latvia showed the shock most directly through retail fuel prices. Estonia showed how the same shock fed into transport inflation, while the overall CPI result was softened by falling electricity prices. Lithuania, in turn, showed the fuel effect through a preliminary HICP contribution breakdown rather than through a standalone fuel release. In other words, the regional signal was shared, but the statistical expression was not identical.
What to note after the text
Lithuania’s March block should be treated as a preliminary estimate and visually separated from the Latvia and Estonia sections. That is not a weakness of the story – it is an important methodological note. The comparison works best when framed as a review of how fuel contributed to March inflation, not as a perfectly uniform three-country price comparison.