Kazakhstan flax exports via the Baltics: volumes, ports and Q1 transit risks
The first week of 2026 confirmed a trend that took shape in the second half of 2025. A shipment of Kazakh flaxseed from the 2025 harvest was exported via the port of Liepāja to Belgium, highlighting the rapid growth of Kazakhstan’s flax exports to the EU and the renewed role of the Baltic corridor.
According to the Grain Union of Kazakhstan and sector analysts, flax exports accelerated sharply in autumn 2025.
In September 2025, exports (excluding CIS markets) reached around 63,000 tonnes.
In October 2025, a new record was set at 119,800 tonnes.
Combined exports for September–October amounted to roughly 183,000 tonnes, with EU-bound volumes growing three to six times year-on-year.
Belgium emerged as the main destination. Exports to Belgium reached approximately 12,600 tonnes in September and 45,200 tonnes in October, driven by demand from processors of linseed oil, industrial oils, paints, linoleum and related products.
According to vessel tracking data and freight forwarder assessments, the main destinations for Kazakh flax shipments moving via the Baltic Sea remain the ports of Ghent and Antwerp.
The role of Baltic ports
Kazakh sources report that in the first nine months of 2025, rail shipments of grain and oilseeds towards Baltic ports increased 14-fold. Total exports of Kazakh grain and oilseeds via the Baltic corridor in 2025 are estimated at 670,000–800,000 tonnes, including flows through Latvia and Estonia.
Latvia traditionally handles specialised and niche agricultural cargoes, including oilseeds, through ports such as Liepāja and Riga.
In late 2025, during the official visit of the President of Estonia to Kazakhstan, framework agreements were recorded for the transit of up to 2 million tonnes of grain via Estonian ports in 2026–2028. In annual terms, this corresponds to roughly 600,000–700,000 tonnes per year. These figures represent target volumes, not actual transported amounts.
For comparison, actual Kazakh grain volumes handled by Estonian ports in 2025 were estimated at around 120,000–160,000 tonnes.
Regulatory shift and market balance
As Russian oilseeds lose price competitiveness in the EU due to tariff barriers, this advantage is partly offset in Kazakhstan’s case by longer logistics routes and the need for transit through third countries.
From July 2025, the EU import duty on Russian flaxseed increased to 20%, and from 1 January 2026 to 50%, sharply reducing its competitiveness on the EU market. At the same time, Kazakh exports face structurally higher logistics costs linked to extended rail routes, winter constraints and reliance on transit corridors, primarily through Russia.
Q1 2026: transit risks
A critical constraint for all Kazakh shipments to the Baltics remains rail transit through Russia. In the first quarter of 2026, this factor becomes particularly important, as winter conditions, seasonal infrastructure works and administrative measures can directly affect wagon availability and transit speed.
According to Russian industry sources, RZD reportedly restricted wagon supply on certain routes in early 2026, adding uncertainty to Q1 flows. As a result, even contracted or planned volumes for the first quarter should be treated as forecast-based, with actual figures dependent on rail capacity and operational conditions.
Bottom line
Data from late 2025 and early 2026 point to a structural reconfiguration of EU agricultural supply chains. As tariff barriers reduce the competitiveness of Russian oilseeds in the EU, Kazakhstan is rapidly increasing exports, while Baltic ports once again play a key role as an East–EU transit corridor. However, the scale of deliveries in the first quarter of 2026 will be determined not only by demand and port capacity, but also by the resilience of rail transit during the winter period. BSM © 2026 | balticfocus.org/
Image: photos/photo_153@10-01-2026_13-59-14.jpg