February widened the industrial gap inside the Baltics rather than narrowing it. Lithuania posted the strongest result, combining annual growth with positive monthly momentum. Latvia kept total industry in positive territory, but mostly because of a sharp rise in electricity and gas supply, while manufacturing stayed in decline. Estonia slipped back into negative territory after three months of growth in manufacturing, with exports still under pressure.
The three Baltic economies are now showing three different industrial patterns. Lithuania looks closest to a real recovery in manufacturing. Latvia’s headline number is stronger than its factory base. Estonia is not collapsing, but it has not yet secured a stable restart in its export-oriented industrial sector.
Regional data card
Lithuania: industrial output +4.7% y/y; manufacturing +4.4% y/y; month on month +0.9%
Latvia: industrial output +4.0% y/y; manufacturing -2.2% y/y; month on month -1.3%
Estonia: industrial output -0.5% y/y; manufacturing -1.1% y/y; month on month -0.7%
Latvia
Latvia reported a 4.0% annual increase in industrial output in February, but the structure of that growth remained uneven. The main lift came from electricity and gas supply, where output rose by 24.6%. At the same time, manufacturing fell by 2.2%, and mining and quarrying dropped by 37.2%. That means the headline was positive, but the industrial core was still weak.
Inside manufacturing, the picture was mixed. Food production grew by 3.3%, fabricated metal products by 14.0%, computers, electronics and optical equipment by 10.5%, machinery by 9.9%, furniture by 8.5%, and motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers by 6.8%. But the country’s largest manufacturing branch by weight — wood and wood products — fell by 5.6%. Production also dropped sharply in repair and installation of machinery and equipment, down 53.2%, beverages, down 40.1%, clothing, down 15.9%, and rubber and plastics, down 12.6%.
The turnover data reinforce the same point. Manufacturing turnover fell by 0.4% year on year in February. Domestic turnover rose by 1.0%, but export turnover fell by 1.1%, including a 5.6% drop outside the euro area. Latvia therefore entered spring with a better industrial headline than its factory demand picture.
Latvia data card
Industrial output: +4.0% y/y
Manufacturing: -2.2% y/y
Electricity and gas supply: +24.6% y/y
Mining and quarrying: -37.2% y/y
Month on month: -1.3%
Manufacturing turnover: -0.4% y/y
Domestic turnover: +1.0%
Export turnover: -1.1%
Estonia
Estonia’s February numbers were weaker than Latvia’s, but also cleaner to read. Total industrial production fell by 0.5% from a year earlier. Manufacturing output declined by 1.1%, while mining increased by 1.3% and energy by 3.1%. The key point is that manufacturing turned negative again after three months of growth.
The breakdown shows that the setback was not universal. More than half of manufacturing activities expanded. Among the larger branches, wood processing rose by 1.5%, metal products by 4.0%, and computers, electronics and optical equipment by 1.1%. But food production fell by 5.3%, and electrical equipment production dropped by 9.5%. According to Statistics Estonia’s commentary, food production was hit by weaker retail demand and higher prices, while electrical equipment faced a high comparison base from February last year.
The external demand story remains the bigger issue. In February, 67% of manufacturing output was sold abroad. Yet manufacturing sales at current prices fell by 3.1% year on year, with export sales down by 5.2%, while domestic sales edged up only 0.8%. Estonia is therefore still stuck in a weak export cycle even if some manufacturing branches are growing.
Estonia data card
Industrial output: -0.5% y/y
Manufacturing: -1.1% y/y
Mining: +1.3% y/y
Energy: +3.1% y/y
Month on month: -0.7%
Manufacturing sales: -3.1% y/y
Domestic sales: +0.8%
Export sales: -5.2%
Share sold abroad: 67%
Lithuania
Lithuania delivered the strongest February result in the Baltics and the broadest one. Total industrial output rose by 4.7% from a year earlier, while manufacturing increased by 4.4%. Unlike Latvia, Lithuania also showed positive monthly movement: total industrial output rose by 0.9% from January after seasonal and working-day adjustment, and manufacturing rose by 1.6%.
The monthly breakdown points to strength in several branches. Production of other non-metallic mineral products rose by 23.1% from January, computers, electronics and optical products by 22.7%, and furniture by 7.8%. At the same time, clothing fell by 8.0%, paper and paper products by 5.3%, and fabricated metal products by 5.1%. So the recovery was not universal, but the balance remained positive.
The broader structure also looks firmer than in the other two Baltic states. In annual terms, capital goods production rose by 11.9%, durable consumer goods by 7.9%, and electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning by 18.3%. Over January-February as a whole, total industrial output was up 3.8% year on year. Among the three Baltic states, Lithuania is now showing the clearest manufacturing traction.
Lithuania data card
Industrial output: +4.7% y/y
Manufacturing: +4.4% y/y
Month on month: +0.9%
Manufacturing month on month: +1.6%
January-February: +3.8% y/y
Capital goods: +11.9% y/y
Durable consumer goods: +7.9% y/y
Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning: +18.3% y/y
February did not produce a single Baltic industrial story. It produced a clearer regional split. Lithuania showed the strongest combination of annual and short-term growth. Latvia remained dependent on utilities to support the headline while manufacturing and turnover stayed weak. Estonia slipped back after a short improvement and still has not overcome soft export demand. For now, the Baltic industrial map is not a synchronized rebound, but three different stages of adjustment.