🇱🇹 Lithuania’s Illegal Cigarette Market Among the Largest in the Baltics

Lithuania has one of the largest illegal cigarette markets in the Baltic region, with contraband products making up 26.7% of all cigarettes smoked in Q2 2025, according to a “Empty Pack Survey” by NielsenIQ.

For comparison, the share stands at 18.6% in Latvia, 17.3% in Estonia, and 6.7% in Poland.

An estimated 73.5% of untaxed cigarettes entering Lithuania are manufactured in Belarus, with another 11.3% arriving from Poland.

“Smuggling from Belarus poses a national security threat. Current penalties are not strong enough to deter organized groups,” said Arnas Neverauskas, CEO of the Lithuanian Tobacco Manufacturers Association.

The highest levels of contraband were recorded in Panevėžys (49.6%), followed by Plungė (40.5%), Visaginas (35.2%), Alytus (34.5%), and Kretinga (34.3%).

The study also found a rise in counterfeit cigarette production, now accounting for 5.5% of all illegal tobacco.

Neverauskas noted that an increasing share of counterfeit goods originates from illegal factories in Latvia, where organized crime groups are expanding operations. Overall, Lithuania’s state budget loses over €70 million annually in unpaid excise taxes due to cigarette smuggling.

Customs data show that 6 million packs of illicit cigarettes were seized in Lithuania in the first nine months of 2025 — already surpassing the 4.5 million confiscated in all of 2024.

Cases of contraband arriving via meteorological balloons from Belarus have more than doubled, with 546 incidents registered so far this year, alongside 50 drone drops.

Context:

The findings highlight the convergence of economic crime and hybrid tactics: contraband cigarettes delivered by balloons and drones from Belarus have repeatedly disrupted Lithuanian airspace, even forcing temporary airport closures in Vilnius and Kaunas.

While Latvia and Estonia also report rising counterfeit activity, Lithuania remains the main entry point for smuggled tobacco into the EU’s eastern border. The government has extended its Belarus border closure until November 30 as part of enhanced security measures.

Source: NielsenIQ / ELTA / DELFI.lt / Lithuanian Border Guard Service

Image: photos/photo_20@07-11-2025_20-50-16.jpg