Russian and Belarusian Grain Transit Through Latvia Exceeds 2025 Volumes
Russian and Belarusian grain transit through Latvia reached 888,000 tonnes by 6 October 2026, up 36.3% from the 652,000 tonnes recorded for the whole of 2025, according to customs figures reported by Latvian Television. September accounted for nearly 45% of this year’s volume.
The increase has renewed debate over how much grain transit earns for Latvia’s railway, ports and logistics companies.
Industry representatives interviewed by Latvian Television’s De facto programme estimate that moving a tonne of grain from the Russian border to a ship in a Latvian port costs around €25–30.
At that rate, the 888,000 tonnes handled by early October would generate €22.2–26.6 million in gross logistics revenue. This is an indicative calculation, not a verified revenue figure. It should not be confused with profit or government income.
Latvia’s Ministry of Transport has presented a much larger figure. It estimates that ending grain transit could cost the transport sector around €290 million annually, including €40 million for Latvijas dzelzceļš and €250 million for port terminals, carriers and related businesses.
Yet the ministry’s own calculations suggest that one million tonnes of grain would bring in approximately €3.3 million in railway infrastructure charges and another €15–25 million for other transport and logistics services.
Those figures are broadly in line with the €25–30 per tonne reported by De facto. They do not, however, explain the much larger estimate of €290 million in annual losses. The two calculations cover different economic effects, and the published information does not provide enough detail to reconcile them.
The ministry also warns that lower transit volumes could push up railway costs for domestic customers, as infrastructure expenses would have to be spread across fewer shipments.
Meanwhile, railway infrastructure charges for Russian grain transit rose by an average of 25% on 13 October. According to De facto, the change added less than €1 per tonne to the total transport cost.
Price competition concerns in Lithuania
The debate extends beyond Latvia’s transport sector. Lithuanian grain processors and traders have raised concerns about the effect of Russian grain shipments on regional competition.
According to the Lithuanian Grain Processors and Traders Association, Russian grain is offered at prices 10–15% below those of competing Baltic grain. The association also reports that growing demand for shipping capacity has pushed up freight costs by €7–8 per tonne of wheat.
These are industry estimates, not independently verified market averages.
For Baltic grain exporters, the issue is therefore not simply how much transit business ports and railways attract. It is also whether additional cargo flows affect their ability to compete on price, secure shipping capacity and move their own products through the ports.
The figures reveal two sides of the same trade: revenue for transport operators and potential additional costs for agricultural exporters. The overall economic balance remains difficult to establish from the available data.