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Weather forecasts matter more and more for the Baltic energy sector: Baltic electricity market in March 2026

Weather forecasts matter more and more for the Baltic energy sector: Baltic electricity market in March 2026

Baltic electricity market in March 2026

Seasonally lower demand together with higher renewable generation drove electricity prices down across the Baltic states in March. According to AST, the average Baltic power price fell by 53.09% month on month to 72.80 EUR/MWh. Estonia recorded the sharpest decline, with the monthly average falling to 61.36 EUR/MWh, followed by Latvia at 74.95 EUR/MWh and Lithuania at 82.07 EUR/MWh.

Despite persistent differences inside the region, further price movements are increasingly shaped by weather, generation structure and the availability of cross-border flows. The March decline was mainly driven by stronger hydropower and solar generation, while grid constraints and import access continued to shape price differences between the three Baltic states.

Data card: Baltic electricity market, March 2026

  • Lithuania – 82.07 EUR/MWh
  • Latvia – 74.95 EUR/MWh
  • Estonia – 61.36 EUR/MWh

Latvia

Latvia’s key feature in March was the sharp rise in hydropower generation, which significantly reduced the role of more expensive fossil-fired generation and made Latvia one of the main factors behind lower electricity prices in the region.

Data card: Latvia

  • Average price in March (vs February 2026) – 74.95 EUR/MWh (-51.77%)
  • Electricity consumption – 625 GWh

Lithuania

In Lithuania, lower March prices were driven by a strong rise in solar generation, a still high contribution from wind and cheaper imports. Imports remained essential for the balance: 69% of total imports came from Latvia, 26% from Sweden and 5% from Poland. Local generation covered more than three quarters of demand, which means the Lithuanian market was noticeably less strained than in winter, although it still remained dependent on external supply.

Data card: Lithuania

  • Average price in March (vs February 2026) – 82.07 EUR/MWh (-47.21%)
  • Electricity demand – 1049 GWh
  • Share of demand covered by local generation – 76%

Estonia

Estonia remained the lowest-priced bidding zone in the Baltic region in March, largely because of better access to imports from the Finnish direction. At the same time, Estonia remained structurally deficit in volume terms: domestic generation covered only about 60% of monthly demand. This means lower prices in Estonia reflected not higher self-sufficiency, but a more favourable import position within the regional grid.

Data card: Estonia

  • Average price in March (vs February 2026) – 61.36 EUR/MWh (-60.32%)
  • Electricity demand – 691 GWh
  • Share of demand covered by local generation – 60%

Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia: generation by source, March 2026

SourceLatviaLithuaniaEstonia
Solar108 GWh158 GWh113.4 GWh
Windn/a403 GWh134.1 GWh
Hydropower487 GWh85 GWhn/a

Table sources: AST monthly market data; Enefit Latvija March 2026 market review; Litgrid March 2026 market review; Elering dashboard raw data for March 2026.

Conclusion

March points to three things. First, Baltic electricity prices fell primarily because demand eased after the winter peak while cheaper renewable output increased, especially Latvian hydropower and spring solar generation. Second, Latvia temporarily acted as the region’s balancing anchor, while Lithuania remained more dependent on imports and Estonia benefited from a more favourable import position from the north. Third, the Baltic market is regional, but still not seamless: the three countries remain connected, yet not always aligned in price formation.