April gave Baltic Focus the first detailed regional industry comparison of 2026. May does not overturn that reading. It updates it.
Latvia still has the strongest headline figures. Lithuania remains positive over the first five months, but May cooled. Estonia’s manufacturing sector remains under pressure.
The most interesting picture, however, is not the country ranking. Electronics, electrical equipment and metal products show positive pockets across the region, while food, wood and refinery-linked sectors continue to move in different directions.
Latvia: stronger headline, but still a May update
DATA CARD
Latvia — Industry after May 2026
- Industry (Jan–May): +8.0%
- Industry (May YoY): +6.2%
- Manufacturing (Jan–May): +3.5%
- Manufacturing (May YoY): +6.1%
Key sectors
- Electronics: +30.1%
- Metal products: +19.6%
- Food: +8.4%
- Wood products: +7.8%
Baltic Focus note
The strongest Baltic headline, but monthly growth remained modest (+0.4% compared with April).
Latvia recorded the strongest industrial reading among the Baltic states in the first five months of 2026. Total industrial output increased by 8.0% year on year, while manufacturing expanded by 3.5%.
May continued that positive picture. Industrial output rose by 6.2%, with manufacturing up 6.1%. Growth was broad-based, led by electronics, fabricated metal products, food production and wood processing.
The most notable sector was computer, electronic and optical equipment, which expanded by 30.1% year on year. While this is an encouraging signal, one month’s result is not sufficient to describe a broader industrial trend.
Month-on-month growth remained limited. Both total industry and manufacturing increased by 0.4% compared with April.
Lithuania: positive five-month picture, softer May
Lithuania — Industry after May 2026
- Industry & manufacturing (Jan–May): +4.2%
- Industry (May YoY): +1.2%
- Manufacturing (May YoY): +1.6%
- Industry (May MoM): −2.9%
Key sectors
- Electronics: +12.0% MoM
- Refined petroleum products: −13.0% MoM
- Chemicals: −12.2% MoM
Baltic Focus note
Still positive over five months, but May highlights the sensitivity of Lithuania’s industrial headline to refinery-related sectors.
Lithuania remains in positive territory after five months of 2026, with both total industry and manufacturing up 4.2% year on year.
The May release, however, was noticeably softer. Industrial production declined by 2.9% compared with April, while year-on-year growth slowed to 1.2% for total industry and 1.6% for manufacturing.
The weakest monthly movements came from refined petroleum products and chemicals. At the same time, manufacturing excluding refined petroleum products remained positive over January–May, suggesting that the refinery continues to shape Lithuania’s industrial headline more than many other sectors.
Separately, Verslo žinios reported in July that ORLEN Lietuva had terminated the Petrofac contract related to the Mažeikiai refinery modernisation, leading to losses for subcontractor Iremas. This does not explain the May production figures, but it illustrates that Lithuania’s largest industrial asset continues to generate operational and investment developments beyond the monthly statistics.
Estonia: manufacturing still under pressure
Estonia — Industry after May 2026
- Industry (May YoY): −3.0%
- Manufacturing (May YoY): −3.5%
- Manufacturing: 4th consecutive monthly decline
Key sectors
- Electrical equipment: +13.7%
- Electronics: +7.7%
- Metal products: +6.0%
- Food: −3.5%
Baltic Focus note
Manufacturing remains weak despite several expanding technology-related sectors.
Estonia continues to be the weakest point in the current Baltic industrial picture.
Industrial output declined by 3.0% year on year in May, while manufacturing contracted by 3.5%, marking the fourth consecutive monthly decline.
Food production remained under pressure, while wood processing, Estonia’s largest manufacturing branch, was broadly unchanged from a year earlier.
Not all sectors weakened. Electronics, electrical equipment and fabricated metal products all expanded, indicating that parts of Estonia’s industrial base continue to perform well despite the overall decline.
Cross-sector comparison
Baltic manufacturing pockets — May 2026
Electronics & electrical equipment
- Latvia: +30.1%
- Lithuania: +12.0% MoM
- Estonia: +7.7%
- Estonia (electrical equipment): +13.7%
Metal products
- Latvia: +19.6%
- Estonia: +6.0%
Food
- Latvia: +8.4%
- Estonia: −3.5%
Wood
- Latvia: +7.8%
- Estonia: broadly unchanged
Baltic Focus note
Technology-related manufacturing remains one of the few positive themes shared across the region, while traditional industrial branches continue to diverge.
What May adds
May does not rewrite the Baltic industrial picture established in April. Instead, it provides another checkpoint.
Latvia continues to post the strongest headline growth. Lithuania remains positive but more volatile, while Estonia’s manufacturing sector has yet to establish a sustained recovery.
At sector level, the picture is more nuanced than the country ranking suggests. Electronics and electrical equipment remain worth watching across the region, while food production, wood processing and refinery-linked activities continue to underline the structural differences between the three Baltic economies.
June figures will show whether this April–May picture develops into a broader first-half pattern or remains a temporary snapshot.