Estonia prepares its grid for 1.5 GW of new generation

Estonian transmission system operator Elering is preparing the electricity grid to connect around 1,500 MW of new generation capacity, while reinforcing connections around the country’s largest centres of electricity demand.

The change is driven less by a large increase in Estonia’s total generation capacity than by a shift in where electricity is produced. Much of the existing capacity is concentrated in ageing oil-shale plants in Virumaa, while new generation is expected to be distributed more widely across the country.

Elering estimates that Estonia could need around 4,000–4,500 MW of total generation capacity within ten years, compared with slightly more than 3,000 MW today. The expected system would include just over 2,000 MW of dispatchable generation and more than 2,000 MW of weather-dependent generation.

Electricity demand is meanwhile expected to grow particularly in Tallinn, Tartu, Pärnu and Jõhvi, driven by new loads including electrification of district heating and electric vehicle charging. Elering expects tariff-funded grid investment of around €80–90 million annually over the next five years.

The existing backbone grid is already strong enough to connect data centres with demand of several hundred megawatts at suitable nodes, although Elering says projects of around 1,000 MW would be too large for the Estonian power system.

Signal: Estonia is preparing for a power system in which generation becomes more geographically distributed while electricity demand becomes increasingly concentrated around major urban and industrial nodes.

Source: ERR / Elering, 21 September 2026.