Latvia’s €1 billion foreign-capital rise is not a €1 billion FDI inflow

Foreign capital registered in the share capital of Latvian companies has increased by €1.05 billion since the beginning of 2026, reaching €13.58 billion.

But the headline number should not be read as €1.05 billion of new foreign direct investment entering the Latvian economy.

Two corporate changes alone account for more than the entire net increase.

The share capital of Ingka Investments Latvia, part of the IKEA investment structure, increased from €143.9 million to almost €772.9 million — a rise of roughly €629 million. The company is expanding its Latvian forest holdings and last year agreed to acquire around 135,000 hectares from Södra Forest Latvia.

A second €501.5 million appeared through a change in the ownership structure of Baltic Pro, where an Estonian company became the holder of 97.96% of the shares. Lursoft data show that Baltic Pro reported no operating revenue between 2020 and 2024 and is currently listed as an inactive taxpayer.

Together, the two changes amount to around €1.13 billion — already more than Latvia’s €1.05 billion net increase in registered foreign share capital.

The distinction matters. Registered share capital can reflect acquisitions, ownership restructuring and corporate balance-sheet changes. It is not the same measure as an FDI inflow, new productive capacity or new money entering the economy.