Lithuania remains the Baltic inflation outlier in September
| Annual HICP inflation | August | September |
|---|---|---|
| Lithuania | 5.6% | 6.1% |
| Estonia | 1.3% | 3.0% |
| Latvia | ~3.0% | ~2.9% |
| Euro area | 3.2% | 3.8% |
Lithuania remained the clear Baltic inflation outlier in September, with annual HICP inflation at 6.1%, compared with 3.0% in Estonia and around 2.9% in Latvia.
The gap remains substantial even after Estonia’s sharp rebound. In August, harmonised inflation stood at 5.6% in Lithuania, 1.3% in Estonia and around 3% in Latvia. By September, Lithuania had accelerated by another 0.5 percentage points, while the euro-area rate also increased, from 3.2% to 3.8%. Lithuania therefore did not accelerate unusually fast relative to the euro area — but its inflation level remained 2.3 percentage points higher.
Lithuania’s September data continue to point to strong energy-related pressure. The State Data Agency lists petrol, heat energy, diesel, vehicle maintenance, wood fuel and electricity among the strongest positive influences on annual inflation. At the same time, food and non-alcoholic beverages were still 1.8% cheaper than a year earlier, suggesting that the headline rate is not being driven uniformly across the consumer basket.
Estonia’s move from 1.3% to 3.0% looks dramatic, but part of the jump is mechanical. September 2026 HICP rose by 0.5% month on month, while the comparison base a year earlier had fallen sharply. Statistics Estonia also points to continuing increases in petrol and diesel prices as an important current influence.
Latvia, by contrast, remained broadly stable while inflation accelerated both in Lithuania and across the euro area. Its national CPI rose 3.2% year on year in September, with cheaper food offsetting part of the pressure from transport and housing costs.
The September figures therefore reinforce rather than overturn the pattern identified by Baltic Focus in August: Baltic inflation is still not moving as a single bloc. Estonia has moved back towards Latvia after an unusually weak August reading, while Lithuania remains on a distinctly higher inflation path.
For the broader background, see Cheaper Butter, Dearer Fuel: Why Baltic Inflation Is Pulling Apart.