Transport risk rises in Latvia and Lithuania as Baltic sector paths diverge

Transport has emerged as the highest-risk business sector in both Latvia and Lithuania, while Estonia’s main vulnerability is concentrated in the chemical industry, according to Coface’s new CEE Sectorial Heatmap 2026.

In Latvia, Coface also sees increasing credit risk in construction, while wood processing is identified as the country’s most resilient sector. Latvian plywood exports increased by 5% year on year in the first quarter of 2026, while wood production has returned to growth after declines in 2023 and 2024.

Lithuania shows a different split. ICT is its strongest sector, while transport carries the highest risk. Transport company bankruptcies increased from 13 in the second quarter of 2025 to 35 in the first quarter and 30 in the second quarter of 2026.

In Estonia, pharmaceuticals are identified as the most resilient sector and chemicals as the highest-risk industry. Coface estimates the Estonian pharmaceutical market at around €528 million and forecasts growth of 6.5% in 2026.

Signal: The Baltic economies are recovering, but sector performance is increasingly diverging. Transport is emerging as a common pressure point in Latvia and Lithuania, while the strongest sectors differ sharply — wood processing in Latvia, ICT in Lithuania and pharmaceuticals in Estonia.

Source: Coface, CEE Sectorial Heatmap 2026, September 2026.