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In Focus

๐Ÿงบ Baltic Grocery Index โ€” March 2026

Comparison vs February 2026. Method: non-promotional prices only. Sources: Rimi + Barbora

๐Ÿงบ Baltic Grocery Index โ€”                  March 2026

Comparison vs February 2026. Method: non-promotional prices only. Sources: Rimi + Barbora.


๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ป Latvia

No confirmed baseline price movement.

Milk โ€” โ‚ฌ0.65 in Barbora (FARM MILK 2%), versus โ‚ฌ0.95 for the main online Rimi offer; lower-price milk remains available, but is less visible across channels.
Eggs โ€” โ‚ฌ1.99 in Rimi Smart (cage), baseline unchanged.
Bread โ€” โ‚ฌ0.35โ€“0.39
Chicken fillet โ€” โ‚ฌ7.99/kg
Pork shoulder โ€” โ‚ฌ5.29/kg
Potatoes โ€” โ‚ฌ0.59/kg (packed only)
Carrots โ€” โ‚ฌ0.69/kg (no loose format)
Rice 800 g โ€” โ‚ฌ1.19
Sugar โ€” โ‚ฌ0.69
Sunflower oil โ€” โ‚ฌ1.69

Result (LV):
Baseline prices remain stable. However, online retail continues to shift toward packaged formats and weaker visibility of lower-cost options in selected categories.

๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡น Lithuania

Broad-based downward adjustment confirmed across protein categories.

Milk โ€” โ‚ฌ0.59
Eggs (barn) โ€” โ‚ฌ2.25
Bread โ€” โ‚ฌ0.32โ€“0.34
Chicken fillet โ€” โ‚ฌ6.99/kg
Pork (baseline segment) โ€” ~โ‚ฌ4.49/kg
Potatoes โ€” โ‚ฌ0.39/kg (baseline)
Carrots โ€” ~โ‚ฌ0.58/kg
Rice 800 g โ€” โ‚ฌ0.93
Sugar โ€” โ‚ฌ0.64โ€“0.67
Sunflower oil โ€” โ‚ฌ1.48โ€“1.54

Result (LT):
Downward price adjustment observed across protein categories.
Staple carbohydrates remain stable.


๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ช Estonia

No broad price movement detected.

Milk โ€” โ‚ฌ0.55โ€“0.59
Eggs โ€” โ‚ฌ1.79โ€“2.29
Bread โ€” โ‚ฌ0.43โ€“0.48
Chicken fillet โ€” โ‚ฌ7.79โ€“9.35/kg
Pork โ€” higher price levels persist; no stable low-cost baseline observed
Potatoes โ€” โ‚ฌ0.39/kg (loose available)
Carrots โ€” โ‚ฌ0.45/kg (loose available in Rimi)
Rice 800 g โ€” โ‚ฌ0.49 (baseline present in Rimi)
Sugar โ€” ~โ‚ฌ0.59โ€“0.70
Sunflower oil โ€” โ‚ฌ1.59โ€“1.79

Note (Rice):
Lower-cost rice remains available in the market, but is not consistently present across retailers.
Higher-priced variants show signs of upward pressure beyond standard category differences.

Result (EE):
Prices remain stable overall.
Selective pressure observed in specific categories (rice, pork), alongside variation in retail assortment.


Regional picture โ€” March

โœ”๏ธ Lithuania shows a clear downward adjustment in protein categories
โœ”๏ธ Latvia remains price-stable, with changes in online assortment structure
โœ”๏ธ Estonia maintains overall stability with isolated category pressure (rice)
โœ”๏ธ No broad inflation signal across staple carbohydrates
โœ”๏ธ Market behaviour differs by country, not by season


Structural takeaway

Lithuania:
Price adjustment through lower protein costs

Latvia:
Stable pricing with controlled retail visibility

Estonia:
Stable baseline with selective upward pressure and mixed assortment signals


Observation

Consistent tracking is critical:
early signals in retail structure and category pricing can be detected before they appear in official statistics or public narratives.


Baltic Focus ยฉ 2026
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