EBRD raises 2026 growth forecasts for Latvia and Estonia, keeps Lithuania at 3%

The EBRD has raised its 2026 GDP growth forecasts for Latvia and Estonia to 2.4%, while leaving Lithuania’s forecast unchanged at 3.0%. Compared with the Bank’s June outlook, the Latvian forecast is up from 2.0% and the Estonian forecast from 2.1%.

The revision narrows the gap between the three Baltic economies this year, although Lithuania is still expected to grow faster. For 2027, the EBRD expects growth of 2.1% in Latvia, 2.2% in Lithuania and 2.3% in Estonia. Latvia is the exception in the new forecast: its stronger 2026 outlook is accompanied by a reduction in the 2027 projection from 2.3% to 2.1%.

The EBRD says Latvia’s growth accelerated to 2.8% in the first half of 2026, supported by investment, although imports grew faster than exports. More broadly, financing conditions, energy costs and fiscal pressures remain constraints across the EBRD region.

Source: EBRD — Regional Economic Prospects, September 2026.
https://www.ebrd.com/home/news-and-events/publications/economics/rep/running-dry.html